Reliable stats on success/failure rates

Apologies in advance if this has been talked about in the past but I am unable to find any reliable source on English Channel success/failure rates (both historic and current). I saw that @loneswimmer suggests in another post that historic rate is 30/70 and current rate is more 70/30 but I wonder if anybody had any more precise figure or source?

Which brings me to the question - what's the Channel / solo swim with largest failure rate these days? Why?

Thank you! I love the intel that you can gather in this forum and that cannot necessarily be found on Google :-)

DanSimonelli
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  • evmoevmo San FranciscoAdmin
    edited April 13

    I am unable to find any reliable source on English Channel success/failure rates (both historic and current)

    There are only two organizations who could provide these statistics: the CSA and the CS&PF (and for anything pre-2000, just the CSA).

    The CS&PF reports success rates at least occasionally - you'll need to search through their news archives - http://cspf.co.uk/news - and look for the annual reports.

    As far as I know, the CSA does not report success rates or provide annual reports.

    what's the Channel / solo swim with largest failure rate these days?

    I would guess the North Channel or Tsugaru. There are tougher swims (Farallons, Juan de Fuca), but to get a high failure rate you need lots of attempts.

    GlobalSwimmerDanSimonelli
  • phodgeszohophodgeszoho UKSenior Member

    The CSA website's advanced search provides the option to include unsuccessful swims from 2014 onwards in the returned results.

    You can calculate/scrape the success rate for their swims from there.

    I believe the CS&PF does give an overal success rate in their annual AGM details but chooses not to share individual swim information as you could use it to determine success rates for individual pilots.

    evmoKatieBunGlobalSwimmerDanSimonelli
  • GlobalSwimmerGlobalSwimmer New York NYMember

    Thank you @phodgeszoho that's reliable enough, I guess! So looking at that list, there were 361 successful, one-way solo swims, and 111 unsuccessful attempts in the last four years - that makes a 69% successful rate. Kudos to @loneswimmer for his estimates!

    @evmo North Channel and Tsugaru are certainly the least crossed of the Oceans 7 (57 and 26 people respectively) but I wonder if the latter is more due to the logistics and registration costs (the most expensive by far!) rather than to the difficulty of the swim itself, when compared to others in that series. Farallons and Juan de Fuca to me are filed along with others such as Loch Ness under the "No-go" folder.

    phodgeszoho
  • phodgeszohophodgeszoho UKSenior Member

    "Farallons and Juan de Fuca to me are filed along with others such as Loch Ness under the "No-go" folder."

    :-)

    KatieBun
  • evmoevmo San FranciscoAdmin
    edited April 13

    GlobalSwimmer said: North Channel and Tsugaru are certainly the least crossed of the Oceans 7 (57 and 26 people respectively) but I wonder if the latter is more due to the logistics and registration costs (the most expensive by far!) rather than to the difficulty of the swim itself, when compared to others in that series.

    Steve @Munatones reported the current Tsugaru success rate at 50 to 60%. There may be a lot of DNFs in Japan you don't hear about. I would guess NC is also about 60% (modern rate, not historical), Kaiwi 65%ish, Gibraltar and Catalina 85%ish. Cook Strait, who knows.

    DanSimonelli
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